In this quarterly outlook we outline our asset allocation views and address four key questions on wages, sterling, trade and rates. A weak pound and rising inflation, set against a tight labour market and loose credit conditions, should keep the UK out of recession. A lack of policy space means that central banks may have to turn to more unconventional responses when the next recession occurs. Unfortunately for markets, our bearish outlook for 2018 came to pass. For 2019, the key question is how tightening financial conditions will impact heavily indebted borrowers – and whether this raises the risk of recession. A future in which there is less work to be done will radically reshape the economy, with important consequences for investors – including some contrarian implications for the consumer and real-estate sectors.

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The basic research behind every innovation that makes a smartphone ‘smart’ – GPS, microchips, touchscreens, and the Internet itself – was funded by the US government. The state, not the market, turns out to have been the innovating, risk-taking partner, not ‘crowding out’ but ‘dynamising in’ private enterprise and this trend holds across other high-tech industries too, such as pharmaceuticals and biotech. Imagine linking the commons to local currencies, barter systems or tokens. I have always believed that in Ireland credit unions have a huge role to play in sustainable local economic development, including the development of a local currency.

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  • The logistics industry is seeing increased investment, driven by technology trends including automation and smart manufacturing.
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It’s not like I’m going into my meet a climate denier. It’s like trying to argue with your toaster, you know, they just these people are so devastatingly lost in their own delusions about personal agency and their sense of being free of the world. But meanwhile, we are all locked and loaded into a system that we’re doing this huge experiment with, like every screen, we don’t even realise how much staring at a screen is messing our eyes up. Or we don’t you know, like, I’ll give you one funny example.

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I spent the night at Trafalgar and then we were taken by car to Elmwood where we had a delicious lunch. 50 of us went by bus to Montreal station where again we were met by a lot of photographers, before we boarded the train. I was photographed on the engine of the train. The scenery from the train was quite different from anything  I have seen before.